Risk Dashboard
13 economic indicators with rolling z-score analysis
Economic Risk Assessment
Report date: March 20, 2026
Bottom Line
The economy is in what RiskTerminal's methodology calls Regime 2 (Complacency/Brittle) — surface calm but developing cracks underneath. The JNK discount approaching -2σ is the single most important indicator to watch: if it crosses -2σ while HY spreads start widening, that's a Regime 4 transition. For covered calls, the elevated IV environment (KEY IV jumped from 31.5% to 33.0% over the weekend) is actually favorable — richer premiums. But if JNK stress deepens, consider tighter position sizing and shorter DTE to reduce exposure to a potential volatility spike.